บรรยายพ เศษ. ท ศทางอ ตสาหกรรมยานยนต ไทยในอนาคต The future direction of Thailand automotive industry

Transcription

1 บรรยายพ เศษ ท ศทางอ ตสาหกรรมยานยนต ไทยในอนาคต The future direction of Thailand automotive industry โดย นางจ ร ร ตน ส วรรณว ทยา รองผ อานวยการสถาบ นยานยนต เอกสารประกอบการส มมนา อนาคตของยานยนต ไฮบร ดและไฟฟ าในประเทศไทย ว นศ กร ท 29 ม นาคม 2556 เวลา น. ณ ห องจ ป เตอร 4 อาคารชาเลนเจอร อ มแพค เม องทองธาน

2 The Future Direction of Thailand Automotive Industry by Mrs. Chureerat Suwanvithaya, Vice President of Thailand Automotive Institute Friday, 29 th March, Challenger Hall, Impact, Muangthongthani

3 1. Current situation and positioning of Thailand Automotive Industry in Global and ASEAN Outline 2. Competitiveness of Thailand Automotive Industry 3. Global trend of automotive technology 4. Thailand Automotive Industry Development Master Plan

4 1. Current situation and positioning of Thailand Automotive Industry in Global and ASEAN 3

5 World Automobile Production Hamburger crisis -12% 0.4% 2012 = 80.4 mil.units (CV 25%: PC 75%) Source: OICA & FOURIN 4

6 Global Automobile Production Ranking

7 Global Automobile Sale Ranking 2012 Source: FOURIN 6

8 Overview of ASEAN Automotive industries K (1,000) ,500 3,000 CAGR 7% 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, CAGR 20% CAGR 5% CAGR 7% CAGR 3% CAGR 8% 0 Indonesia Malaysia Phillipines Thailand Vietnam ASEAN Source: AAF (analyzed by TAI) 7

9 Current Situation of Thailand Automotive Industry Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 8

10 Thailand Automobile Production Capacity Units Decreased from Flood in Thailand 1.27 Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 9

11 Thailand Motorcycle Production Capacity Assembler Capacity 2012 Honda 1,400,000 Yamaha 600,000 Suzuki 450,000 Kawasaki 150,000 Total 2,600,000 Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 10

12 Proportion of Type of vehicles in Thailand Production SUV 7% Bus/Truck 1% Passenger Car 34% Double-Cab 37% Pickup 1 ton 24% Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 11

13 Thailand Vehicle Export to the World (1,000 units) % % Jan-Dec 12 = 1,026,671 Units Jan-Dec 11 = 735,627 Units Growth = 40% 30% % 10% 20% % % 0% % -12% -10% % 0 Asia Oceania Middle East Africa Europe Central & South America -30% Jan-Dec'11 Jan-Dec'12 Growth Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 12

14 Export-Import of Thailand Automotive Industry 2012 Unit : M.B Growth (Jan-Dec) (Jan-Dec) (%) Export 780,944 1,010, Car 342, , Motorcycle 24,783 35, Auto parts 413, , Import 395, , Car 51,521 73, Motorcycle 1,305 4, Auto parts 342, , Export > Import 385, , Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 13

15 2. Competitiveness of Thailand Automotive Industry 14

16 Emission standard Country THAILAND Euro3 Euro4 INDONESIA MALAYSIA Euro2 Gasoline Euro2 Euro 3 (Tentative) Diesel Euro1 Euro 2 (Tentative) Euro 4 (Tentative) Euro 4 (Tentative) PHILIPPINES Euro2 VIETNAM Euro2 Euro4 (Under Study) Euro 4 (Tentative) SINGAPORE Gasoline Euro2 Euro 4 (Tentative) Diesel Euro4 Euro 5 (Tentative) Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 15

17 Human resources development 800, , , , , , ,000 41,150 41,100 43,300 18, , , , , ,100 41,900 41, , , No. of Labours Incresing Labours Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 16

18 Top 100 Global suppliers investment in Thailand Top 100 of 2010 Global Suppliers Active in Thailand Japanese Global Suppliers Other Global Suppliers 2. Denso 4. Aisin Seiki 13.Yazaki 15.Sumitomo 16.Toyota Boshoku 18.CalsonicKansei 19.JTEKT 20.Hitachi 28.Toyoda Gosei 33.NTN 34.NSK 35.Mitsubishi 39.NHK Spring 40.Koito 41.TS Tech 43.Takata 46.Bridgestone 49.Tokai Rika 57.Showa 61.Mitsuba 66.Asahi Glass 72.Stanley 74. Akebono Brake 82.Sanden 84. F-Tech 92.Alpine 94.Pioneer 98. Omron 28/29 Companies 1. Robert Bosch 3. Continental 6. Faurecia 7. Johnson Control 8. ZF 11. TRW 12. Delphi 14. Lear 17. BASF 21. Valeo 22. Visteon 23. Autoliv 25. Mahle 27. Dana 31. BorgWarner 36.Teneco 44. Federal-Mogul 47. Michelin 50. GKN Driveline 51. Hella 52. Goodyear 56. Grupo Antolin 58. Bayer 59. TI Automotive 65. Draexlmaier 67. American Axle 73. Rieter Auto. 84. F-Tech 86. Hayes Lammerz 93. 3M 30/71 companies Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 17

19 Competitiveness benchmarking of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia Source: Boston consulting group 18

20 Thailand Automobile production & share in ASEAN 2012 Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 19

21 Overview of ASEAN Automotive industries Thailand Population : 67 Million Production 2011 : 1,457,795 Units Sales 2011 : 796,123 Units Product Champion : 1-ton Pick up Vietnam Population : 87 Million Production 2011 : 100,465 Units Sales 2011 : 109,660 Units Product Champion : Motorcycle Philippines Population : 92 Million Production 2011 : 64,906 Units Sales 2011 : 141,616 Units ASEAN Key Indicators Population 2011 : million GDP 2011 : 2,153 Billion (US$) GDP 2011 Growth rate : 4.4% Car Production 2011 : 2.99 million units Car Total Sales 2011 : 2.59 million units Indonesia Population : 240 Million Production 2011 : 837,948 Units Sales 2011 : 894,164 Units Product Champion : SUV and MPV, Big Truck Malaysia Population : 28 Million Production 2011 : 533,515 Units Sales 2011 : 600,123 Units Product Champion : Passenger Car 20

22 ASEAN Countries Positioning in Automotive Industry ASEAN Automotive Matrix Increasing demand Increasing capacity High domestic demand Low Domestic demand No Production Base Strong Production Base Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 21

23 SWOT Analysis of Thailand Automotive Industry Strength 1. World Production base (Rank No. 10 in 2012) 2. Supplier s long experience 3. Competitive supply chain 4. High skill labor 5. Competitive in geographical area 6. Government policy Opportunity 1. Investment confidence with government policy 2. New Testing, R&D center investment 3. FDI in new products 4. Growth and development of supplier from Thailand to be the world production base and hub of ASEAN 5. AEC 2015 increase free flow of products, labor, trade and investment 6. Development of alternative/renewable energy vehicles Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) Weakness 1. Inadequate of Testing, R& D center for development 2. Cost of labor in creasing 3. Trend to lack of skill labor in future 4. Few number in outbound investment 5. Know-how transfer Threat 1. Uncertainty from the climate change 2. NTBs/NTMs increasing in competition 3. Development of the competitor in advanced technology (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia) 4. Change of new automotive technology 22

24 3. Global Trend of Automotive Technology 23

25 Automotive Industry Trends Environmental Issues Total CO2 emissions are not decreasing Need to monitoring and control CO2 in the future Carbon dioxide Carbon monoxide Nitrogen oxide Volatile organic compound Sulfur dioxide EU vehicles toxic emission down but CO2 still a challenging Source: Automotive Foundation (FIA) 24

26 Automotive Industry Trends (Environmental Issues) Source : International Energy Agency (IEA) 25

27 Automotive Industry Trends (Safety Issues) Global Vehicle Safety Regulation Improvement Active safety standard Brakes (Electronic stability program, ESP) etc. Passive safety standard Crash test (Design crumple zones) etc. Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Source : Global Trends 2020 and Beyond Automobile Use, Environment & Safety Challenges, FIA Foundation, June

28 Motor vehicle world in use forecast to 2045 Motor vehicle world in use forecast to 2045 Source: David ward (2011) 27

29 ASEAN Countries Policy in Automotive industry ASEAN countries focus on new technology Malaysia Green Initiative Indonesia New incentives for Small passenger car (not exceeding 1,000 cc.) Vietnam Motorcycle and Low cost production base Philippines Transmission production Source : Thailand Automotive Institute (TAI) 28

30 Opportunity and Threat from FTAs Thailand and ASEAN now has signed total 8 FTAs : AFTA ACFTA TAFTA JTEPA TIFTA AKFTA AIFTA AANZFTA ASEAN ASEAN-China Thai-Australia Thai-Japan Thai-India ASEAN-South Korea ASEAN-India ASEAN-Australia /New Zealand Opportunity - Liberalize - Market Expansion - Free flow of goods, - labor and services Threats - High competition - NTBs/NTMs increase - Import tax of finished products is 0% in some FTAs which resulted in local production competition ; Ex. Import EV from China of Japan is 0% 29

31 3. Thailand Automotive Industry Development Master Plan

32 The way forward of Thailand Vision 2011 Thailand is production base in Asia which creates more value added to the country with strong automotive parts industry ประเทศไทยเป นฐานการผล ตยานยนต ของเอเช ย สามารถสร างม ลค าเพ 9มใน ประเทศด วยอ ตสาหกรรมช Fนส วนยาน ยนต ท 9แข งแกร ง Vision 2021 Thailand is a global green automotive production base with strong domestic supply chains which create high value added for the country ประเทศไทยเป นฐานการผล ตยานยนต ของโลกด วยห วงโซ อ ปทาน (Supply chain) ท 9สร างม ลค าเพ 9มใน ประเทศและเป นม ตรก บส 9งแวดล อม Green = Environmental friendly & international standard 31

33 Development Planning in the key competitiveness 1. Facility: Testing center 2. R&D 3. AHRD Light weight vehicle Alternative fuel Vehicle safety Advance technology Japanese government GIZ (Germany) KANGAN (Australia) University (Thailand) 32

34 แผนแม บทอ ตสาหกรรมยานยนต พ.ศ Master Plan for Thai Automotive Industry VISION 2021 Thailand is a global green automotive production base with strong domestic supply chains which create high value added for the country Alternative energy Strategic Plan (3 COEs + 2 ENVs) Integrated AHRD COE-1 COE-2 COE-3 Light weight vehicles Research and Technology Vehicle safety Development Advanced production T technology Human Resources Development System Development Capability upgrading AHRD Alliance Entrepreneur Strength Enhancement Productivity Improvement Cluster/Supply chain Network Green manufacturing ENV-1 Infrastructure Testing and R&D Centers Automotive Information Centers Automotive Academy Policy Integration Policy Research Support Promote Investment Promotion for Green Products and Suppliers Branding for REM COE = Center of Excellence ENV = Good Business Environment 33

35 Thailand Automotive Institute Thank You 34